Orbital Assurance
§ 01Orbital Risk Lab

Orbital Risk Lab

Explore how mission architecture changes financial risk. Five open models, built on transparent assumptions.

Tool 01

Satellite Risk Calculator

Mission-level illustrative model
Asset value (per spacecraft)$100M
$1M$10M$100M$1B
Mission duration5 yr
Orbit
Altitude550 km
30080014002000
Number of spacecraft1
1101001k10k
Flight heritageModerate heritage
RedundancyStandard
Testing depthStandard qualification
Debris protectionStandard shielding
Early-life failure contribution 3.68% · annualised in-orbit hazard 0.582%/yr · modelled probability of catastrophic loss 6.45% per spacecraft.
Asset value exposed
$100M
Estimated expected loss
$6.5M
Risk score
39 / 100
Indicative risk cost
8.7%
of asset value, mission-long

Illustrative risk model — educational use only. Not an insurance quote, premium indication, or actuarial estimate.

Tool 02

What happens when something small hits something fast?

Debris diameter1 cm
1 mm5 mm1 cm3 cm5 cm10 cm
Impact velocity10.0 km/s
51015
Fragment mass
1.41 g
Kinetic energy
70.7 kJ
TNT equivalent
17 g
Regime
Subsystem-level damage
SPACECRAFT PANEL — WHIPPLE + STRUCTURE1 cm @ 10.0 km/sDAMAGE SCALE: RELATIVE
Potential consequences

Energy sufficient to penetrate typical Whipple shielding margins and damage internal components. Partial loss of capability is plausible.

Illustrative risk model — educational use only. Not an insurance quote, premium indication, or actuarial estimate.

Tool 03

What is risk reduction worth?

Spacecraft value$100M
Mission duration7 yr
Baseline probability of catastrophic loss2.0%
Risk reduction from mitigation technology50%
Cost of mitigation technology$400K
Before mitigation — expected loss$2.0M
After mitigation — expected loss$1.0M
Economic value of risk reduction
$1.0M
Net expected risk benefit
$600K
Over a 7-year mission

This is the arithmetic behind shielding, collision avoidance, better testing, redundancy, monitoring, qualification, and independent verification. When a technology moves the probability more than it costs, it creates value for the operator, the underwriter, and the capital behind the mission.

Illustrative risk model — educational use only. Not an insurance quote, premium indication, or actuarial estimate.

Tool 04

How much capital is at risk before launch?

Build a hypothetical spacecraft program and watch the pre-ignition exposure accumulate.

Spacecraft manufacturing cost$85.0M
Inventory$8.0M
Supplier deposits$6.0M
Engineering labor$24.0M
Testing equipment & campaigns$18.0M
Integration costs$12.0M
Transportation$3.0M
Ground support equipment$9.0M
Launch deposit$15.0M
Launch-site processing & fueling$5.0M
Total capital exposed before launch
$185M
Manufacturing$123M · 66%
Testing$30.0M · 16%
Transportation$3.0M · 2%
Launch-site processing$5.0M · 3%
Launch deposits$15.0M · 8%
Supporting infrastructure$9.0M · 5%

The majority of the capital behind a mission may already be exposed before ignition.

Illustrative risk model — educational use only. Not an insurance quote, premium indication, or actuarial estimate.

Tool 05

Mission Risk Stack

Construct a hypothetical mission and see where relative risk concentrates.

Satellite type
Orbit
Launch vehicle maturityMaturing
Spacecraft heritageModerate
Mission duration7 yr
Number of spacecraft1
Debris protectionStandard
Testing levelStandard
RedundancyStandard
Relative risk indicators
Manufacturing risk45
Testing risk35
Transportation risk25
Launch risk68
Commissioning risk27
Orbital environment risk65
Operational risk41

These are relative risk indicators derived from the selected mission characteristics — not actuarial probabilities, loss frequencies, or underwriting outputs.

Illustrative risk model — educational use only. Not an insurance quote, premium indication, or actuarial estimate.

§ 09How we think about it

Understand the risk.
Insure the risk.
Invest in what reduces it.

The long-term opportunity is to build modern risk infrastructure for the commercial space economy — sitting at the intersection of engineering reality and risk capital.

  • 01Space risk begins on Earth.
  • 02A spacecraft accumulates enormous financial exposure before launch.
  • 03Launch is only one component of mission risk.
  • 04Orbital debris and other emerging risks require better measurement.
  • 05Better technology can reduce expected losses.
  • 06Better testing and verification can reduce uncertainty.
  • 07Insurance converts technical risk into financial risk.